The recent capture of Aleppo by Syrian rebel forces has thrust the long-buried civil war back into the global spotlight. This unexpected offensive has jolted the frontlines, with significant implications for Syria and beyond.
What’s Happening?
On 29 November 2024, rebel fighters launched a surprise attack from the north and northwest of Aleppo, successfully forcing government forces out of the city. This marks a pivotal shift in control not seen since 2016, when the city was reclaimed by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, aided by Russia and Iran.
Who Are the Rebels?
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Previously known as the Nusra Front, HTS is led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani and is a dominant force in the Idlib region, regarded as a terrorist group by various nations, including the US and Russia.
- Syrian National Army (SNA): Backed by Turkey, the SNA has recently captured territories such as Tel Rifaat from the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Why Now?
The resurgence of conflict appears to be a consequence of regional power shifts. With major backers like Iran and Russia preoccupied with other conflicts—particularly tensions with Israel—rebels have seized their chance to regain lost ground. Turkey, meanwhile, is frustrated with the lack of progress towards a peaceful resolution, particularly regarding the Kurdish forces that threaten its security.
The Human Cost
The ongoing war, which erupted following a series of protests in 2011 against Assad’s rule, has left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced over half of Syria’s pre-war population of 23 million. The urgency for a sustainable peace plan remains critical, yet efforts have largely stalled.
Looking Ahead
- UN Security Council resolutions aimed at reconciliation have yet to yield tangible results, reflecting the deep divides.
- U.N. Syria envoy Geir Pedersen emphasised the need for substantive negotiations to address the ongoing conflict.
As the situation develops, the international community watches closely, hopeful for dialogue but acutely aware of the complexities—an echo of the age-old adage, “where there is smoke, there is fire”…