Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has recently made headlines after arriving in Russia, where he was granted asylum by the authorities. This development comes as Russian military facilities in Syria, particularly in Latakia and Tartous, are facing increasing threats from advancing insurgents.
Assad’s Asylum in Russia
According to Russian news agencies, Al-Assad and his family have been granted asylum on humanitarian grounds, which adds a new layer of complexity to the already tense situation in Syria. The Kremlin’s backing of Assad has been steadfast, aligning with its strategy to maintain influence in the region.
Threats to Russian Military Operations
As Russian war bloggers have pointed out, the ongoing insurgent advances pose significant risks to Moscow’s military operations in Syria. The Hmeimim airbase and the Tartous naval base are of particular concern. If the insurgents succeed in destabilising these strongholds, it would not only impact Russia’s military presence but also its geopolitical standing in the Middle East.
- Hmeimim Airbase: According to insiders, losing control of this base would severely restrict the Russian air force’s operational capabilities.
- Tartous Naval Facility: This is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub, crucial for its naval operations.
Insurgents’ Resolve
Russian war bloggers have indicated that the insurgents are unlikely to relent, with some experts suggesting that without robust support from Russian forces, the Syrian army may struggle to maintain its ground. Influential voices within the military community express a feeling of vulnerability given current resource allocations primarily directed towards the conflict in Ukraine.
A Delicate Balance
As the situation unfolds, the Russian government finds itself balancing its role in Syria with the ongoing war in Ukraine. The loss of military assets and influence in Syria could represent a broader geopolitical setback for President Vladimir Putin, who has long portrayed Russia’s military engagements as a demonstration of its capacity to shape global events.