A ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah took effect on 27 November 2024, potentially ending over a year of intense conflict that has resulted in significant casualties and displacement. While U.S. President Joe Biden has expressed hope that this 60-day truce will lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities, many experts remain cautious about its longevity.
The Terms of the Ceasefire
The agreement, brokered by the United States and France, sets out several key provisions:
- Halt to Hostilities: Both sides are to cease military operations, with Israel expected to halt strikes against Lebanese targets while Hezbollah will stop any attacks on Israel.
- Withdrawal of Forces: Israel is to gradually withdraw its military from southern Lebanon over the next 60 days, with Hezbollah also pulling back north of the Litani River.
- Deployment of the Lebanese Army: The Lebanese military is expected to take control of areas previously occupied by Hezbollah to prevent any resurgence of armed groups.
Monitoring and Compliance
One major concern is the monitoring of the ceasefire. A mechanism involving the United Nations peacekeeping forces, the Lebanese army, and the Israeli army will be set up, chaired by the U.S. and France. Yet, the absence of an independent body for oversight has raised eyebrows.
Political science lecturer Simon Frankel Pratt from the University of Melbourne expressed doubt about the truce’s future, stating, “I am not at all confident that this ceasefire will even last 60 days.” Meanwhile, geopolitical expert Cedomir Nestorovic noted the urgency on both sides to settle before the new U.S. administration takes office.
Impact on Broader Conflicts
While the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah unfolds, the situation in Gaza remains tense. With the war against Hamas still ongoing and significant casualties reported, analysts are watching closely to see if the truce will influence the dynamics of the Gaza conflict. Pratt remarked, “Wouldn’t it be nice if those efforts were directed towards a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza too?”
In conclusion, the ceasefire adds a layer of complexity to the already intricate challenges in the region, as many, including displaced individuals in both nations, hold onto hope for lasting peace.