The end of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine as of 1 January 2024 marks a significant shift in the European energy landscape. This decision has implications not only for Europe but also for Moldova, particularly its breakaway region of Transdniestria.
Moscow’s Dominance Exits the Stage
Russia’s oldest gas export route, which served Europe since the Soviet era, will effectively shut down with the expiry of a five-year transit deal. This long-anticipated cutoff comes as no surprise, considering the drastic measures the European Union has taken to decrease dependency on Russian energy after the onset of the Ukraine war.
- Russian gas flows to Europe have dwindled, with only 15 billion cubic metres transiting through Ukraine in 2023.
- Gazprom, once the world’s leading gas exporter, faced a US$7 billion loss in 2023.
- Analysts forecast minimal market disruption due to the relatively small remaining volumes of gas.
Moldova Faces Serious Energy Challenges
As the gas flow ceases, Moldova braces for potential mass power cuts. Authorities in the separatist Transdniestria region have already begun cutting gas to state institutions, exacerbating concerns over energy stability.
- 12 state institutions were affected, including education and health facilities.
- Moldova relies on approximately 2 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually.
Former Energy Minister Victor Parlicov alleges that Russia purposely aims to destabilise Moldova, amidst disputes regarding unpaid gas debts. While Gazprom claims Moldova owes US$709 million, Moldova contests this, stating that the actual arrears amount to just US$8.6 million.
A Changing Energy Landscape
Despite the looming crisis, Moldova has diversified its energy sources in recent months, securing supplies from Romania and other countries. The Moldovan Prime Minister has called upon Gazprom to explore alternate supply routes, particularly through the Turkstream pipeline.
As tensions rise, the geopolitical fallout from this energy shift is intricate. While Europe adjusts to decreased Russian gas imports, the implications for national economies and energy security remain to be seen.