The atmosphere in Thailand is charged with anticipation as the Constitutional Court prepares to deliver a ruling that could alter the country’s political landscape dramatically. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has only been in power for a year, faces potential removal following allegations of ethical misconduct linked to a controversial phone call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, during a period of rising tensions between the two nations.
The Court’s Decision
The verdict is expected on 29 August 2024, at 3pm GMT+7 (4pm SGT). Should the court decide to dismiss Paetongtarn, it would mark the fifth time in 17 years that a prime minister has been ousted in such a manner, highlighting the ongoing power struggles that have plagued Thailand since the military coups that targeted the Shinawatra family.
Background of the Controversy
- Paetongtarn, who is the daughter of billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, allegedly violated ethical standards in a leaked phone conversation.
- The call occurred in June 2024, as both Thailand and Cambodia were on the brink of armed conflict.
- The revelations have sparked significant public outrage and protests, further jeopardising her fragile coalition government.
The Political Implications
Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot has noted that the challenge of securing a new prime minister, should Paetongtarn be removed, may prolong political instability. He mentioned the difficulty of aligning interests among various political factions, asserting that the Pheu Thai party would be at a bargaining disadvantage in a potential new selection process.
Potential Successors
Five candidates, presented before the recent elections, are eligible to step into the prime ministerial role:
- Chaikasem Nitisiri from Pheu Thai, a former attorney general.
- Former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, known for his previous coup in 2014.
- Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who withdrew from Paetongtarn’s coalition.
- Additional names include individuals from other political factions.
If she manages to remain in office, observers warn that her administration’s stability is tenuous, with potential protests looming and parliamentary challenges that could impede progress on economic revitalisation efforts.
Looking Ahead
No matter how the ruling unfolds, Thailand’s political climate remains charged and unpredictable. As analysts suggest, the government risks instability, which only time will tell how it will address and navigate through upcoming challenges.