Myanmar’s junta leader General Min Aung Hlaing has embarked on a significant diplomatic mission, marking his first official visit to China since seizing power in a coup in February 2021. His arrival in Kunming on 5 November 2024 sets the stage for key regional summits that could influence the delicate balance of power in Southeast Asia.
Summits and Meetings
During this trip, the general is set to attend the Greater Mekong Subregion summit and the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) meetings on 6 and 7 November. As announced by Myanmar’s state media, General Min aims to enhance bilateral relations with Chinese authorities, focusing on economic and developmental cooperation.
- Summit Locations: Kunming, China
- Meeting Dates: 6-7 November 2024
- Participants: Myanmar, China, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia
China’s Strategic Interests
Beijing’s relationship with Myanmar is founded on significant economic interests, including vital oil and gas pipelines and a planned deep-sea port in the Bay of Bengal. Additionally, China is a major importer of rare earth materials from Myanmar, essential for various high-tech industries.
However, this visit comes amidst increasing anxiety within China regarding the instability in Myanmar. The military junta has struggled to maintain control as armed resistance movements gain ground, alarming Beijing, which fears a potential collapse of the Myanmar government could have wider implications across the region.
A Mixed Reception
Analysts are sceptical about the extent of support General Min will receive during his visit. Richard Horsey from Crisis Group commented that while the invitation to the summit implies some level of recognition, it lacks the diplomatic weight of a direct invitation to Beijing.
The general’s marketability as a reliable ally for China remains under scrutiny, as domestic and international opposition has mounted against the junta’s rule. Observers, like Jason Tower of the United States Institute of Peace, note that the general’s internal issues are unlikely to be resolved through this trip. The junta’s promises for upcoming elections, as backed by Beijing, have drawn criticism over their potential lack of fairness.
Implications and Future Prospects
As the junta faces increasing pressure both internally and externally, this visit could shift the operational landscape for the military government. While looking for support, General Min risks alienating the very populace he aims to govern, potentially leading to greater challenges ahead.
It will be interesting to see whether the discussions in China lead to tangible benefits for Myanmar or merely extend the junta’s current difficulties. The ramifications of this visit resonate beyond Myanmar, reflecting the complex interplay of regional geopolitics in Southeast Asia.